JOHN’s BIG BOARD | QB
2024 NFL Draft Notebook: Quarterbacks
Side Note:
J.J. McCarthy is such a unique situation. I dont know if I can recall another senario where a player was asked to do so little, but when he did was so good. Was not asked to be athletic, but very much is. All while winning a National Championship.
Have two notes on JJ…
First, a negative. I think having played for Jim Harbaugh scares me. It makes me think McCarthy was is just a perfect senario that allowed him to be successful. In the NFL, he will need to get lucky and find that same fit. It doesn’t feel like Washington or New England would be that. If he can stick around long enough for Denver with Sean Payton I think we see him in a gold jacket some day. To the 3 people who reading this… don’t quote me on that.
Second, a positive. When McCarthy was coming out of High School he was offered by Ryan Day at Ohio State. McCarthy accepted that offer but was told he could not do that quite yet. Behind the scenes Ryan Day was saving a spot for his 1st choice… Kyle McCord (I heard that grown OSU fans). Soon after all this went down, McCord publicly committed to Ohio State. When McCarthy saw the reason he could not sign was because Day was waiting to see if he got McCord, McCarthy immediately took his talents to Michigan. Boy did that come full circle, and even as an Ohio State fan, it’s hard not to feel the ice in McCarthy’s veins on that one.
The Rundown:
1st to be picked: Caleb Williams
Most Upside: Drake Maye
There is no surprises here with who will go 1st off the board. We are all aware of the immense talent that Caleb Williams brings to the table, no one is disputing that. To use the most common terms, his floor is just about as high as most ceilings. That said, using the same thought process, Drake Maye has the higher ceiling, he just so clearly has a lower floor than Williams as well. There is no reason to change up what everyone is saying, he is remarkably similar to Josh Allen in his play and similarly his upside. The biggest questions that need to be asked by GMs looking at taking a Quarterback in this class is this: Can this guy WIN me a game? Will this guy LOSE me a game? And will the 1st outweigh the latter?
In that thought process, I think it goes something like this for our top 4:
Caleb Williams: Will not lose you games, but may not always win them for you either, however he has the ability to.
Drake Maye: Will lose you games, will win you much more.
J.J. McCarthy: Will just about never lose you a game, won’t really win one for you either.
Jayden Daniels: Will win and lose you games. Unfortunately, I think it will be too many loses to make the wins worth it.
Could Fall: Drake Maye
There is absolutely a world where Drake Maye falls, I don’t think it will be far, surly not out of the top 10. However, should McCarthy be taken 2nd overall by Washington, which there are grumblings about, then it will come down to preference at 3 between Jayden Daniels and Maye. If New England (Or someone else at 3) believes the fit is Daniels, then a mini-slide could happen. Let’s say the Cardinals and Chargers stay put, they won’t be selecting a Quarterback. That would then leave the Giants as a possibility at 6. However, with 42 Million Dollars locked up in Daniel Jones it isn’t crazy to think they still go pass catcher or offensive line even with Maye available. 7th is the Titans who are likely rolling with Levis, Atlanta at 8 has Cousins, 9 is Chicago who will now have Caleb Williams, and then the Jets at 10. I believe if available Maye would go no later than 10 to the Jets to sit and learn for a year behind Mr.Ayahuasca himself. Now it is more than likely someone will have traded up to snag Maye should he fall past the 3rd pick, but he seems to be the one who could slide and surprise many. I personally love the Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Josh Allen, mentality of: I will have some of the most frustrating turnovers you’ll ever see, but when time is ticking in the 4th quarter you know who’s side you want me on. This may not be the case for all NFL regimes.
My Pick: Drake Maye
Now, all of that being said…, I love Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Josh Allen type guys (is there an echo in here?). As a coach, I always want my quarterbacks to have the mentality that they can go out and win me one, versus the thought to “not lose one”, look what that did to Alex Smith early in his career. If someone is ready to be patient with the chaos early, as the Bills were with Allen, the return will be incredible in no time.
Under/Over:
5.5 Quarterbacks Taken in the 1st Round
Believe it or not, I’m taking the under here. While it seems like such a quarterback happy league, I think NFL GM’s know how important value is. With this being such a deep draft it is going to be extremely hard to pass up organizational changing players and premier positions like Receiver and Tackle to take a ‘gamble-level’ quarterback at that same point. While I know the upside is there, when looking at 1 year at a time, are Bo Nix or Michael Penix truly a better option than Sam Darnold? Jared Stidham? Aiden O’Connell? Okay, yes I hear myself, it got worse as I spelled it out.
But how about some quick math? Does Jared Stidham + Rome Odunze = More wins than Bo Nix straight up?
Ultimately, I have it as Nix or Penix sneaking in somewhere in the 20s and the other going early on day 2.